It's possible to conceive that if the current price of gas remains stable for a while - a couple of months, let's say - that the economy could rebound by the middle of next year. But there are a lot of people rooting against the current price levels. Even as oil prices continue to trend downward, OPEC and industry analysts are sending signals that $45 oil is going to be short-lived.“Commodities will be the place to be if and when we come out of” the downturn, Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, said yesterday (note: 12/4) in an interview on Bloomberg.com. “The only thing where fundamentals are unimpaired are commodities ... So we are going to have some serious, serious supply problems before too much longer.”A Wall Street Journal blog reinforced that idea when they noted that Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries need oil prices in the range of $60-75 per barrel and have expressed a willingness to cut production to reach those levels. OPEC has generally been unable to dictate the price of oil in the past, and their public expression of concern might actually work against them.
Regardless, the economic climate - especially the price of gas - has an eye-of-the-storm feeling. The fundamental questions are when will the price rises begin and how steep will the climb be.
